Theoretical Economics

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Submissions received from Tue 7 May 24 to Wed 8 May 24, announced Thu, 9 May 24

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[1] arXiv:2405.04764 [pdf, other]: Title: Predictive Enforcement

Authors: Yeon-Koo Che, Jinwoo Kim, Konrad Mierendorff

Subjects: Theoretical Economics (econ.TH)

We study law enforcement guided by data-informed predictions of "hot spots" for likely criminal offenses. Such "predictive" enforcement could lead to data being selectively and disproportionately collected from neighborhoods targeted for enforcement by the prediction. Predictive enforcement that fails to account for this endogenous "datafication" may lead to the over-policing of traditionally high-crime neighborhoods and performs poorly, in particular, in some cases as poorly as if no data were used. Endogenizing the incentives for criminal offenses identifies additional deterrence benefits from the informationally efficient use of data.

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