Title: Thresholds in the Robustness of Error Mitigation in Noisy Quantum Dynamics

Abstract: Extracting useful information from noisy near-term quantum simulations requires error mitigation strategies. A broad class of these strategies rely on precise characterization of the noise source. We study the robustness of such strategies when the noise is imperfectly characterized. We adapt an Imry-Ma argument to predict the existence of a threshold in the robustness of error mitigation for random spatially local circuits in spatial dimensions $D \geq 2$: noise characterization disorder below the threshold rate allows for error mitigation up to times that scale with the number of qubits. For one-dimensional circuits, by contrast, mitigation fails at an $\mathcal{O}(1)$ time for any imperfection in the characterization of disorder. As a result, error mitigation is only a practical method for sufficiently well-characterized noise. We discuss further implications for tests of quantum computational advantage, fault-tolerant probes of measurement-induced phase transitions, and quantum algorithms in near-term devices.