Title: A probabilistic, data-driven closure model for RANS simulations with aleatoric, model uncertainty

Abstract: We propose a data-driven, closure model for Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations that incorporates aleatoric, model uncertainty. The proposed closure consists of two parts. A parametric one, which utilizes previously proposed, neural-network-based tensor basis functions dependent on the rate of strain and rotation tensor invariants. This is complemented by latent, random variables which account for aleatoric model errors. A fully Bayesian formulation is proposed, combined with a sparsity-inducing prior in order to identify regions in the problem domain where the parametric closure is insufficient and where stochastic corrections to the Reynolds stress tensor are needed. Training is performed using sparse, indirect data, such as mean velocities and pressures, in contrast to the majority of alternatives that require direct Reynolds stress data. For inference and learning, a Stochastic Variational Inference scheme is employed, which is based on Monte Carlo estimates of the pertinent objective in conjunction with the reparametrization trick. This necessitates derivatives of the output of the RANS solver, for which we developed an adjoint-based formulation. In this manner, the parametric sensitivities from the differentiable solver can be combined with the built-in, automatic differentiation capability of the neural network library in order to enable an end-to-end differentiable framework. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed model to produce accurate, probabilistic, predictive estimates for all flow quantities, even in regions where model errors are present, on a separated flow in the backward-facing step benchmark problem.