Title: A new perspective on thermal transition in QCD

Abstract: Motivated by the picture of partial deconfinement developed in recent years for large-$N$ gauge theories, we propose a new way of analyzing and understanding thermal phase transition in QCD. We find nontrivial support for our proposal by analyzing the WHOT-QCD collaboration's lattice configurations for SU(3) QCD in $3+1$ spacetime dimensions with up, down, and strange quarks.
We find that the Polyakov line (the holonomy matrix around a thermal time circle) is governed by the Haar-random distribution at low temperatures. The deviation from the Haar-random distribution at higher temperatures can be measured via the character expansion, or equivalently, via the expectation values of the Polyakov loop defined by the various nontrivial representations of SU(3).
We find that the Polyakov loop corresponding to the fundamental representation and loops in the higher representation condense at different temperatures. This suggests that there are (at least) three phases, one intermediate phase existing in between the completely-confined and the completely-deconfined phases. Our identification of the intermediate phase is supported also by the condensation of instantons: by studying the instanton numbers of the WHOT-QCD configurations, we find that the instanton condensation occurs for temperature regimes corresponding to what we identify as the completely-confined and intermediate phases, whereas the instantons do not condense in the completely-deconfined phase.
Our characterization of confinement based on the Haar-randomness explains why the Polyakov loop is a good observable to distinguish the confinement and the deconfinement phases in QCD despite the absence of the $\mathbb{Z}_3$ center symmetry.