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Quantitative Finance > Portfolio Management

Title: On a fundamental statistical edge principle

Abstract: This paper establishes that conditioning the probability of execution of new orders on the self-generated historical trading information (HTI) of a trading strategy is a necessary condition for a statistical trading edge. It is shown, in particular, that, given any trading strategy S that does not use its own HTI, it is always possible to construct a new strategy S* that yields a systematically increasing improvement over S in terms of profit and loss (PnL) by using the self-generated HTI. This holds true under rather general conditions that are frequently met in practice, and it is proven through a decision mechanism specifically designed to formally prove this idea. Simulations and real-world trading evidence are included for validation and illustration, respectively.
Comments: For companion simulation material, real-life case studies, and source code, see this https URL
Subjects: Portfolio Management (q-fin.PM)
MSC classes: 91B28, 91B82
Cite as: arXiv:2404.14252 [q-fin.PM]
  (or arXiv:2404.14252v1 [q-fin.PM] for this version)

Submission history

From: Tommaso Gastaldi [view email]
[v1] Mon, 22 Apr 2024 15:03:45 GMT (1712kb)

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