Title: Beyond Trial-and-Error: Predicting User Abandonment After a Moderation Intervention

Abstract: Current content moderation practices follow the trial-and-error approach, meaning that moderators apply sequences of interventions until they obtain the desired outcome. However, being able to preemptively estimate the effects of an intervention would allow moderators the unprecedented opportunity to plan their actions ahead of application. As a first step towards this goal, here we propose and tackle the novel task of predicting the effect of a moderation intervention. We study the reactions of 16,540 users to a massive ban of online communities on Reddit, training a set of binary classifiers to identify those users who would abandon the platform after the intervention - a problem of great practical relevance. We leverage a dataset of 13.8M posts to compute a large and diverse set of 142 features, which convey information about the activity, toxicity, relations, and writing style of the users. We obtain promising results, with the best-performing model achieving micro F1 = 0.800 and macro F1 = 0.676. Our model demonstrates robust generalizability when applied to users from previously unseen communities. Furthermore, we identify activity features as the most informative predictors, followed by relational and toxicity features, while writing style features exhibit limited utility. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of predicting the effects of a moderation intervention, paving the way for a new research direction in predictive content moderation aimed at empowering moderators with intelligent tools to plan ahead their actions.