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Economics > Econometrics

Title: Testing for an Explosive Bubble using High-Frequency Volatility

Abstract: Based on a continuous-time stochastic volatility model with a linear drift, we develop a test for explosive behavior in financial asset prices at a low frequency when prices are sampled at a higher frequency. The test exploits the volatility information in the high-frequency data. The method consists of devolatizing log-asset price increments with realized volatility measures and performing a supremum-type recursive Dickey-Fuller test on the devolatized sample. The proposed test has a nuisance-parameter-free asymptotic distribution and is easy to implement. We study the size and power properties of the test in Monte Carlo simulations. A real-time date-stamping strategy based on the devolatized sample is proposed for the origination and conclusion dates of the explosive regime. Conditions under which the real-time date-stamping strategy is consistent are established. The test and the date-stamping strategy are applied to study explosive behavior in cryptocurrency and stock markets.
Subjects: Econometrics (econ.EM); Methodology (stat.ME)
Cite as: arXiv:2405.02087 [econ.EM]
  (or arXiv:2405.02087v1 [econ.EM] for this version)

Submission history

From: Peter Boswijk [view email]
[v1] Fri, 3 May 2024 13:23:09 GMT (154kb,D)

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