Title: Probabilistic Robust Small-Signal Stability Framework using Gaussian Process Learning

Abstract: While most power system small-signal stability assessments rely on the reduced Jacobian, which depends non-linearly on the states, uncertain operating points introduce nontrivial hurdles in certifying the system's stability. In this paper, a novel probabilistic robust small-signal stability (PRS) framework is developed for a power system based on Gaussian process (GP) learning. The proposed PRS assessment provides a robust stability certificate for a state subspace, such as that specified by the error bounds of the state estimation, with a given probability. With such a PRS certificate, all inner points of the concerned subspace will be stable with at least the corresponding confidence level. To this end, the behavior of the critical eigenvalue of the reduced Jacobian with state points in a state subspace is learned using GP. The proposed PRS certificate along with the Subspace-based Search and Confidence-based Search mechanisms constitute a holistic framework catering to all scenarios. The proposed framework is a powerful approach to assess the stability under uncertainty because it does not require input uncertainty distributions and other state-specific input-to-output approximations. Further, the critical eigenvalue behavior in a state subspace is analyzed using an upper bound of the eigenvalue variations and their inferences are discussed in detail. The results on three-machine nine-bus WSCC system show that the proposed certificate can find the robust stable state subspace with a given probability.