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Economics > Theoretical Economics
Title: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies, Quasi Non-Ergodicity and Wealth Inequality
(Submitted on 17 Dec 2020 (v1), last revised 27 Apr 2022 (this version, v3))
Abstract: We construct a model of an exchange economy in which agents trade assets contingent on an observable signal, the probability of which depends on public opinion. The agents in our model are replaced occasionally and each person updates beliefs in response to observed outcomes. We show that the distribution of the observed signal is described by a quasi-non-ergodic process and that people continue to disagree with each other forever. These disagreements generate large wealth inequalities that arise from the multiplicative nature of wealth dynamics which make successful bold bets highly profitable.
Submission history
From: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud [view email][v1] Thu, 17 Dec 2020 08:40:26 GMT (254kb,D)
[v2] Fri, 8 Oct 2021 17:58:23 GMT (292kb,D)
[v3] Wed, 27 Apr 2022 17:48:11 GMT (569kb,D)
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