Title: Stochastic Finite Volume Method for Uncertainty Management in Gas Pipeline Network Flows

Abstract: Natural gas consumption by users of pipeline networks is subject to increasing uncertainty that originates from the intermittent nature of electric power loads serviced by gas-fired generators. To enable computationally efficient optimization of gas network flows subject to uncertainty, we develop a finite volume representation of stochastic solutions of hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) systems on graph-connected domains with nodal coupling and boundary conditions. The representation is used to express the physical constraints in stochastic optimization problems for gas flow allocation subject to uncertain parameters. The method is based on the stochastic finite volume approach that was recently developed for uncertainty quantification in transient flows represented by hyperbolic PDEs on graphs. In this study, we develop optimization formulations for steady-state gas flow over actuated transport networks subject to probabilistic constraints. In addition to the distributions for the physical solutions, we examine the dual variables that are produced by way of the optimization, and interpret them as price distributions that quantify the financial volatility that arises through demand uncertainty modeled in an optimization-driven gas market mechanism. We demonstrate the computation and distributional analysis using a single-pipe example and a small test network.