Title: Nature-Guided Cognitive Evolution for Predicting Dissolved Oxygen Concentrations in North Temperate Lakes

Abstract: Predicting dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations in north temperate lakes requires a comprehensive study of phenological patterns across various ecosystems, which highlights the significance of selecting phenological features and feature interactions. Process-based models are limited by partial process knowledge or oversimplified feature representations, while machine learning models face challenges in efficiently selecting relevant feature interactions for different lake types and tasks, especially under the infrequent nature of DO data collection. In this paper, we propose a Nature-Guided Cognitive Evolution (NGCE) strategy, which represents a multi-level fusion of adaptive learning with natural processes. Specifically, we utilize metabolic process-based models to generate simulated DO labels. Using these simulated labels, we implement a multi-population cognitive evolutionary search, where models, mirroring natural organisms, adaptively evolve to select relevant feature interactions within populations for different lake types and tasks. These models are not only capable of undergoing crossover and mutation mechanisms within intra-populations but also, albeit infrequently, engage in inter-population crossover. The second stage involves refining these models by retraining them with real observed labels. We have tested the performance of our NGCE strategy in predicting daily DO concentrations across a wide range of lakes in the Midwest, USA. These lakes, varying in size, depth, and trophic status, represent a broad spectrum of north temperate lakes. Our findings demonstrate that NGCE not only produces accurate predictions with few observed labels but also, through gene maps of models, reveals sophisticated phenological patterns of different lakes.