Title: Flashlights: Microlensing vs Stellar Variability of Transients in the Star Clusters of the Dragon Arc

Abstract: We study the nature of transient events detected in the "Dragon Arc", a star-forming galaxy at a redshift of $0.7251$ that is gravitationally lensed by the galaxy cluster Abell 370. In particular, we focus on a subset of ten transients that are identified as unresolved young star clusters in the deep broadband, F200LP, taken as part of the "Flashlights" Hubble Space Telescope program, showing flux variations of $\sim 10-20\%$ over a period of about a year. Here we develop several methods to address whether stellar microlensing alone is capable of explaining the transients, or whether intrinsic stellar outbursts or variability are required to explain them. We first present a lens model that has new constraints in the Dragon Arc itself to understand the properties of the lensed young star clusters. Using our improved galaxy-cluster lens model, we simulate the effect of microlensing on the flux variation for unresolved stars within lensed young star clusters. We find good agreement between the observed and the expected detection rates of microlensing events by intracluster stars of young star clusters within $1\sigma$. However, we cannot fully exclude the possibility that a minority of these transients are caused by intrinsic stellar variability such as outbursts of Luminous Blue Variables (LBVs). With JWST observations taken recently or coming in the near future, the color information will be able to break the degeneracy and definitively test whether or not these lensed young star cluster transients are caused by stellar microlensing.