Title: Physics-informed tracking of qubit fluctuations

Abstract: Environmental fluctuations degrade the performance of solid-state qubits but can in principle be mitigated by real-time Hamiltonian estimation down to time scales set by the estimation efficiency. We implement a physics-informed and an adaptive Bayesian estimation strategy and apply them in real time to a semiconductor spin qubit. The physics-informed strategy propagates a probability distribution inside the quantum controller according to the Fokker-Planck equation, appropriate for describing the effects of nuclear spin diffusion in gallium-arsenide. Evaluating and narrowing the anticipated distribution by a predetermined qubit probe sequence enables improved dynamical tracking of the uncontrolled magnetic field gradient within the singlet-triplet qubit. The adaptive strategy replaces the probe sequence by a small number of qubit probe cycles, with each probe time conditioned on the previous measurement outcomes, thereby further increasing the estimation efficiency. The combined real-time estimation strategy efficiently tracks low-frequency nuclear spin fluctuations in solid-state qubits, and can be applied to other qubit platforms by tailoring the appropriate update equation to capture their distinct noise sources.