Title: Non-linear conductances of Galton-Watson trees and application to the (near) critical random cluster model

Abstract: When considering statistical mechanics models on trees, such that the Ising model, percolation, or more generally the random cluster model, some concave tree recursions naturally emerge. Some of these recursions can be compared with non-linear conductances, or $p$-conductances, between the root and the leaves of the tree. In this article, we estimate the $p$-conductances of $T_n$, a supercritical Galton-Watson tree of depth $n$, for any $p>1$ (for a quenched realization of $T_n$). In particular, we find the sharp asymptotic behavior when $n$ goes to infinity, which depends on whether the offspring distribution admits a finite moment of order $q$, where $q=\frac{p}{p-1}$ is the conjugate exponent of $p$. We then apply our results to the random cluster model on~$T_n$ (with wired boundary condition) and provide sharp estimates on the probability that the root is connected to the leaves. As an example, for the Ising model on $T_n$ with plus boundary conditions on the leaves, we find that, at criticality, the quenched magnetization of the root decays like: (i) $n^{-1/2}$ times an explicit tree-dependent constant if the offspring distribution admits a finite moment of order $3$; (ii) $n^{-1/(\alpha-1)}$ if the offspring distribution has a heavy tail with exponent $\alpha \in (1,3)$.