Title: Higher-Order Graphon Theory: Fluctuations, Degeneracies, and Inference

Abstract: Exchangeable random graphs, which include some of the most widely studied network models, have emerged as the mainstay of statistical network analysis in recent years. Graphons, which are the central objects in graph limit theory, provide a natural way to sample exchangeable random graphs. It is well known that network moments (motif/subgraph counts) identify a graphon (up to an isomorphism), hence, understanding the sampling distribution of subgraph counts in random graphs sampled from a graphon is pivotal for nonparametric network inference. In this paper, we derive the joint asymptotic distribution of any finite collection of network moments in random graphs sampled from a graphon, that includes both the non-degenerate case (where the distribution is Gaussian) as well as the degenerate case (where the distribution has both Gaussian or non-Gaussian components). This provides the higher-order fluctuation theory for subgraph counts in the graphon model. We also develop a novel multiplier bootstrap for graphons that consistently approximates the limiting distribution of the network moments (both in the Gaussian and non-Gaussian regimes). Using this and a procedure for testing degeneracy, we construct joint confidence sets for any finite collection of motif densities. This provides a general framework for statistical inference based on network moments in the graphon model. To illustrate the broad scope of our results we also consider the problem of detecting global structure (that is, testing whether the graphon is a constant function) based on small subgraphs. We propose a consistent test for this problem, invoking celebrated results on quasi-random graphs, and derive its limiting distribution both under the null and the alternative.